Market Thermometer

Composite Market Intelligence

Historical Valuation

Composite standard deviation from the long-run mean

VALUATION Models

Valuation composites comparing market levels versus long-run fundamentals.

Shiller CAPE

Cyclically Adjusted P/E (10y)

Overvalued
Current 32.4
Historical Mean 22.1
Z-Score 2.48
Valuation 78
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

Earnings multiples remain rich despite slowing margins.

Shiller CAPE has cooled from 2021 highs yet remains materially above the post-war trend. Elevated multiples combined with moderating EPS revisions limit forward returns.

Updated Dec 12, 2025 • 4:18 PM

Buffett Indicator

Total Market Cap / GDP

Severely overvalued
Current 1.92
Historical Mean 1.05
Z-Score 2.47
Valuation 82
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

Signals extreme market richness relative to economic output.

The Buffett Indicator is printing 2.5 standard deviations above its long-run mean. Historically readings above +2σ have preceded regime shifts as valuations mean revert toward nominal GDP expansion.

Updated Dec 12, 2025 • 4:36 PM

RECESSION Models

Macro early-warning dashboards tracking growth inflections.

Initial Jobless Claims Momentum

4-Week Moving Average (YoY z-score)

Normal risk
Current 0.35
Historical Mean 0.0
Z-Score 0.39
Valuation 42
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

Labor market cooling but not flashing red.

The claims momentum indicator has drifted higher yet remains within one standard deviation of the historical mean. Employment softness would likely confirm the recessionary message from the yield curve.

Updated Dec 12, 2025 • 4:03 PM

Yield Curve (10y-3m)

10Y minus 3M Treasury Spread

Recession risk
Current -0.63
Historical Mean 1.27
Z-Score -1.65
Valuation 65
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

Prolonged inversion keeps recession risk elevated.

The curve has been inverted for 18 consecutive months. While labor markets remain resilient, liquidity conditions tightness tends to manifest with a lag.

Updated Dec 12, 2025 • 3:54 PM

SENTIMENT Models

Crowd psychology and positioning gauges to time extremes.

Equity Sentiment Pulse

Composite Sentiment Index

Bullish euphoria
Current 72.0
Historical Mean 48.0
Z-Score 2.0
Valuation 58
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

Risk appetite has returned to speculative extremes.

Retail flow, options positioning, and cross-asset volatility compression collectively point to euphoric risk-taking. Contrarian setups typically emerge when the indicator sustains readings above 70.

Updated Dec 12, 2025 • 4:27 PM

Global Manufacturing Pulse

ISM & PMI Composite z-score

Bearish pessimism
Current -0.45
Historical Mean 0.2
Z-Score -0.93
Valuation 38
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

Global manufacturing still struggling to regain traction.

Forward-looking components such as new orders and inventory ratios remain below trend, hinting that the goods cycle recovery will be choppy.

Updated Dec 12, 2025 • 4:11 PM

Asset Radar

How core assets compare versus their historical fair value ranges.

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S&P 500

Real-time snapshot

Overvalued

Spot

5187.12

Historical Mean

4205.44

Valuation Score

71

AI Breakdown

Broad US equities continue to lean expensive relative to cyclicals.

Mega-cap strength keeps the index extended. Breadth has improved, yet upside appears limited without a renewed earnings cycle acceleration.

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Bitcoin

Real-time snapshot

Overvalued

Spot

64120.55

Historical Mean

38210.14

Valuation Score

68

AI Breakdown

Crypto momentum remains firm despite macro uncertainty.

On-chain activity shows renewed leverage but long-term holders remain steady. Watch for volatility spikes around macro catalysts.

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US Housing

Real-time snapshot

Overvalued

Spot

415000.0

Historical Mean

360000.0

Valuation Score

59

AI Breakdown

Shelter costs remain sticky as supply stays constrained.

Mortgage rate normalization is slow to translate into affordability relief. Inventory shortages keep national price composites elevated.

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Gold

Real-time snapshot

Fair Value

Spot

2365.8

Historical Mean

1850.0

Valuation Score

44

AI Breakdown

Precious metals are consolidating after a breakout.

Real rates have stabilized, keeping gold anchored near recent highs. If recession risk materializes, safe-haven bids could extend the move.